Well, well… It feels good to be “back”. Granted, I’m far from being back to watching stocks all day, every day. As I revealed in my “Breaking the Silence” post back in July — I’ve been holding more than 200,000 shares of OWCP. This was an investment because my due diligence had me believing in the science and future of OWC. While I wish I hadn’t been deceived by people who earned my trust and friendship from October 2016 through February 2017 and instead sold my shares on the run up to $3.23 on February 22nd, 2017… I try to not dwell on the past. I try to learn from my mistakes.
If OWCP were to run over $1.50 without major news in the coming 3 months, I’m certain I will be selling some of my shares. Not because I don’t believe it can one day achieve a $1 Billion market cap, but because without some great news of progress and partnerships — I don’t see how it can hold onto a near $400 Million market cap. Thus, sell and wait for a lower re-entry. (Granted, I then lose out on the Capital Gains tax rate I currently have if I were to buy again lower and sell later in 2020, but “it is what it is”.)
With that being said, I wanted to write this blog because I was doing my due diligence and comparing the 2017 run with the December 2019 run that has begun and wanted to share my thoughts. After all, that was the intention of OwnTheFloat.com — sharing my verifiable due diligence to make it easier for YOU to follow the links and see the truth for yourselves.
To start with, OWCP hit $0.0036 on September 23rd, 2016. It then took around 420 Million in volume over 19 trading days before it reached $0.097 on October 19th, 2016.
In comparison, OWCP dropped to $0.003 on November 29th, 2019. Then, it took around 197 Million in volume over 22 trading days to reach $0.09 today (December 31st, 2019). So, similar number of days, but less than HALF the volume — even though the Outstanding Share count is more than twice as big now*!
*The O/S was around 144.7 million as of March 31st, 2017 according to their 10-K filed on 3/31/17. As of December 2nd, 2019, the O/S is around 262.3 million according to OTCmarkets.com.
While it’s anyone’s guess if this means OWCP will have an explosive January 2020, it certainly gives me hope. After all, if we look to the past for comparison — the volume in the last 22 days to end 2016 was only 26.6 million. That’s around 4.7 million shares fewer than today alone!
January 3rd, 2017 through February 22nd, 2017, OWCP went from $0.18 to $3.23 on around 159 million in volume.
If you think of these runs in terms of Market Cap, OWCP was briefly ‘worth’ around $467 Million on February 22nd, 2017.
If this stock manages to run to that same Market Cap in 2020, it would be $1.78 per share this time around because of the increase in O/S since then.
I’ve watched plenty of OTC stocks run based on pure hype and speculation — zero substance, zero proof.
This time around, OWCP is so much closer to the goal post. Sure, they still have a ways to go for full-blown FDA approval. However, they announced on December 16th that the US Patent & Trademark Office (US PTO) issued PATENT APPROVAL for their Topical Cream. In early October, they announced great Top Line Results for their Orally Disintegrating Tablet — comparing it to GW Pharma’s ($GWPH) Sativex. They ended that news release by saying, “OWC intends to apply to the Israel Ministry of Health to obtain necessary approvals to market its Medical Grade Cannabis – Orally Disintegrating Tablets in Israel.”
So, while I’m NOT trying to create any false hope and tell you OWCP should be worth $1.78 share without further news/updates — I’m simply saying the OTC Market makes zero sense sometimes. People trade on hype, speculation, technical data, etc. So, be careful. If you’re trading it, know where your profit zone is and stick to it. Take profit. Have your stop losses set. Whatever YOU have to do. It’s YOUR money.
I, for one, continue to admit I’ll likely sell some around $1.00 – $1.50 if it seems like things are going bonkers. Though, I still want to watch for a cheap re-entry so I can hold shares for the possible acquisition or Big Pharma buy-in / partnership after Phase 2 data comes out.
(By the way, all historical trading data can be verified with NASDAQ.)
That’s all for me. It’s New Years Eve, after all. I wish you all a great, happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year!