If you’re an OWCP “Long” and survived the blood bath this week — Bravo! Congratulations! If you’re a Day Trader who Shorts or Flips (from last weeks $2.70+ to Friday’s lows of $1.06 – $1.40) — Congratulations to you as well!
On the surface, it was a disgusting week for OWCP, who opened the week at $2.455 and sunk to as low as $1.06 during Friday’s trading day before closing at $1.36. Because I prefer to focus on facts (you know, things that can be proven and verified), I’m not going to get into possible “conspiracy theories” of Market Maker Manipulation and the (believable) scenario of MMs running the price down to trigger Stop Losses so wealthy investors can load up at a discount. It is, however, noteworthy to point out that prior to being listed on the SEC submitted application for the first ever Cannabis ETF — OWCP had a 10 day average volume of 1.3 million. The 10 days after the ETF application (with the Wall Street Conference in the middle), OWCP saw average volume of 9.1 million (with one day being over 20 million).
Speaking to a handful of people who remain “Long” with OWCP, they’re all saying the same type of thing — “Friday was healthy.” It’s their opinion, based on the trading action, that many of the people who bought in at lower price points were probably replaced by people at new, higher price points — which builds a stronger support base.
I’m not going to lie — Writing this blog has been difficult because I feel like I’m going in circles, repeating the same things I’ve been saying week after week. OWCP has had several great runs up and every one of them has resulted in a half walk back down for consolidation/retrace. No matter when you bought shares, you probably bought because of what you felt they would rise to in April, July, October, or even beyond 2017 — unless you’re a Day Trader, of course.
Either way, I will continue to focus on are the FACTS and drilling into your head that YOU need to do the research and decide for yourself how long you’re holding. It’s important that you NOT believe everything you read online from individuals — positive or negative. You should know by now you can’t trust strangers, so try and verify the claims being made so you can make decisions based on TRUTH, not speculation or lies. This is why I insist on providing links for every claim I make — so you can click it and verify for yourself that I’m not lying and misleading you. I repeat — there are people who will exaggerate and lie as a means of building false hype as well! Only the truth can help you form a realistic opinion of when to sell or how long to hold.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for people making optimistic predictions of future share prices, but unless they have facts, comparisons, or reasoning behind it — they can create false hope and ultimately lead to people bailing too. Again, that’s why any “prediction” I’ve made was backed by comparisons of the real world — and I provide a link as proof. I know many consider me an ‘OWCP Cheerleader’, but the corny reality is: I research stocks like OWCP so I can form my own opinion and investment strategy — I simply choose to share my findings with you in an attempt to help because of how many people spout off baseless claims, opinions-as-if-they’re-facts, and flat-out lies.
Here are some examples of false, misleading, and/or un-researched “assumptions, presented as facts” I came across from Reddit this morning in a thread about ‘Reason to NOT buy OWCP’, which some people instantly accepted as logic and truth:
- OWCP isn’t located in the US or Canada
- Response: Actually, because Marijuana is still a Schedule 1 drug in the United States – it’s nearly impossible to conduct research on it for medical reasons. The Iraseli Government allows and encourages the research and that is why it’s a positive that OWCP (a Delaware Corporation, traded on the US-based OTC QB market) is conducting its research in Israel. Lots of articles and even documentaries (“WEED” on CNN) will backup the statement of Israel being the best place in the world of Cannabis Medicine research.
- To raise more capital for research, OWCP would need to sell more shares to institutional investors
- Response: Non-Dilutive Financing one of the best forms of financing in the public sector. Essentially, this is the process of getting people who truly believe in your business to invest their money in you — knowing they can’t sell for at least 6 months. This is Non-Toxic Financing. The alternatives would be to get loans that require the company to make payments with sometimes interest rates. Reported in a recent Form 8-K, OWCP successfully (and quickly) raised $1.6 million by selling fewer than 4.8 million shares this way. So, again, these 4.8 million shares cannot be sold until at least 6 months. Plus! These shares were bought during different weeks, which means in the rare event that everybody wanted to sell their shares immediately at the 6 month mark, they would all be spaced out throughout the MONTH.
- First efficacy results aren’t available until March
- Response: That’s true. But that’s the aspect of “the gamble” that allows a person to earn BIG returns. You buy shares for a discount on the assumption and anticipation that the results would be good, knowing the share price will rise after the news is released. So, even if you’re buying for that short term gain, you win. If you’re buying for the long term, it’s still an obvious positive to buy BEFORE the confirmation of good test results. (By the way, their 8-K on February 2nd reported “encouraging results”, which lead to OWCP expanding their size and scope of the study.)
- 5 Days of Red is 5 Reasons Not To Buy
- Response: When a company (not the ‘trading action’ of the stock) has nothing but positive-leaning potential in their near-future pipeline, many people would call “Red days” and “Red weeks” great opportunities to buy the dips. Even the iHub “bashers” who were calling for Friday’s run down to $1.10 are now just as confident OWCP will be back over $2.00 next week. So, while it’s possible for a legit company to be overvalued because of excess hype — it’s my opinion, based on comparative data with AXIM, CNBX, and GWPH, that OWCP is absolutely not overvalued at $250M when their first product launch is right around the corner and is thought to be superior to the AstraZeneca product (which was linked to suicide as a side effect) that sold for $445 million back in 2015.
At the end of an ugly trading day/week, I still ‘know what I own’ because I read the 8Ks, the PRs, the industry news articles, etc. All of my research (which I’ve shared here in many, many blogs dating back to October) would have me far more baffled with failure than success. I’m still very much “all in” and it never crossed my mind to sell yesterday. In fact, I was considering wiring money to buy more when I saw $1.06 — but held off, as I knew that wouldn’t last long.
As I blogged about yesterday, AXIM’s massive run from $0.395 to $19.80 took place during the start of clinical trials that OWCP is nearly done with. AXIM’s first product won’t be out until 2018/2019.
So, after watching six figure gains dwindle away — I didn’t lose any confidence in what’s coming (as soon as the end of March with the Efficacy Test Results). After all, that’s the initial time period I had in mind for a “real run” like AXIM and CNBX had. (To be honest, I wasn’t sure we’d hit $2.00 by March 1st to begin with.) Again, if we do run up to $4.00, $5.00, or beyond… You should still expect some pullback at some point. Once we have products on the market and are reporting revenue, I believe the ups and downs wouldn’t be so wild. We shall see.
There’s lots of updates to be expected, so any day of any week could be the start of the next update-driven run to yet another 52-week high.